Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Levante welcome Deportivo La Coruna to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's home record at : 7W 1D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportivo La Coruna stand at 2W 2D 0L from 4 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deportivo La Coruna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Deportivo La Coruna's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Levante's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Levante in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Deportivo La Coruna in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 25% and Deportivo La Coruna 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Deportivo La Coruna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.29 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.329 / defence 1.064 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.079 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.142. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Levante games / 4 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 59% | Draw 20% | Deportivo La Coruna 21%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Deportivo La Coruna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Levante (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deportivo La Coruna (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 59% | Draw 20% | Deportivo La Coruna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Levante 2.29 / Deportivo La Coruna 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.329 / def 1.064 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.079 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Levante (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Deportivo La Coruna xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna kick off?
Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna part of?
Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 59% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Levante and Deportivo La Coruna will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Deportivo La Coruna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna in?
Levante (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Deportivo La Coruna (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.33x the league average against Deportivo La Coruna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportivo La Coruna's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
59%
1.68
20%
5.12
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Levante xG
Total xG
3.60
1.31
Deportivo La Coruna xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
10%
9.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
2%
47.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Levante and 1.31 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Deportivo La Coruna sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Deportivo La Coruna are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Deportivo La Coruna in 100%.
Defensively: Levante have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Deportivo La Coruna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Levante or Deportivo La Coruna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Deportivo La Coruna in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Deportivo La Coruna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 25%, Deportivo La Coruna 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 50% (Deportivo La Coruna).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Deportivo La Coruna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Deportivo La Coruna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Levante's games and 100% of Deportivo La Coruna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 50% of Deportivo La Coruna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Deportivo La Coruna tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deportivo La Coruna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.