🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Sevilla 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Sevilla 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.99 xG and Sevilla 1.05 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 59% | Draw 21% | Sevilla 20%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Sevilla 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Sevilla 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights