🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Osasuna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 1-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.57 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Real Sociedad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Real Sociedad 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.26 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights