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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 0.80 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Osasuna, 4 for Real Sociedad and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Real Sociedad trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Sociedad 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Real Sociedad 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.57 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.069 / defence 1.038 | Real Sociedad attack 0.905 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.098. Data: 50 Osasuna games / 50 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Real Sociedad 4.00. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Real Sociedad 60% BTTS from recent games.

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