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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.29 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 44% | Draw 28% | Rayo Vallecano 28%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 42%, Rayo Vallecano 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.34 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights