🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.16 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.78 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 39% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 32%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.23 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights