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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna and Mallorca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 27, as Osasuna and Mallorca drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Mallorca attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Mallorca 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Mallorca 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights