🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Levante 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.54 xG and Levante 1.33 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Levante attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 25% | Levante 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Levante 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Levante's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 0.86 PPG, Levante 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights