🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Levante make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 8 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Levante have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Osasuna, 0.80 for Levante — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Osasuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Levante — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Levante 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Levante 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.54 xG and Levante 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.060 / defence 1.224 | Levante attack 0.970 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.124. Data: 52 Osasuna games / 14 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 25% | Levante 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Levante 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights