Osasuna 2-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Girona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Girona and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 40% versus Girona 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 35% | Girona 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.40 xG and Girona 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.941 / defence 1.074 | Girona attack 1.056 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.035. Data: 75 Osasuna games / 37 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 26% | Girona 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Girona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 30% | Girona 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 26% | Girona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Osasuna 1.40 / Girona 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.941 / def 1.074 | Girona attack 1.056 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Girona xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Girona kick off?
Osasuna vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Girona.
Where is Osasuna vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Girona part of?
Osasuna vs Girona is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Girona a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osasuna and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Girona 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Girona in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Girona's attack (1.06x) against Osasuna's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.79
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Girona xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.17 for Girona, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 8D 15L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 13W 10D 14L from 37 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Osasuna against 1.32 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (10W 1D 7L).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 7D 8L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.54 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 70%.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Girona in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Girona have gone 13W 10D 14L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Girona away?
Osasuna's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.72 PPG; Girona away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 39%, Girona 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Girona in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Osasuna's recent matches and 67% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Girona tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Girona in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.40 xG and Girona 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Girona attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 26% | Girona 32%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 35%, Girona 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.35 PPG, Girona 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.