Getafe 2-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Getafe at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Osasuna at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Getafe's home record at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Getafe are significantly better at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Getafe's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Getafe have won 2, Osasuna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Getafe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 40% versus Osasuna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 34% | Osasuna 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.791 / defence 0.905 | Osasuna attack 0.751 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.039. Getafe's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Getafe games / 74 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 25%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Osasuna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
Getafe dominate the H2H record, yet Osasuna are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 50% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Getafe 1.00 / Osasuna 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.791 / def 0.905 | Osasuna attack 0.751 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Getafe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Osasuna xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Osasuna kick off?
Getafe vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Getafe 2 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Getafe vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Osasuna part of?
Getafe vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 42% chance of winning, Osasuna a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Getafe and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Getafe 2W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.79) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
42%
2.41
33%
3.00
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.71
0.71
Osasuna xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Getafe and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Getafe and 0.71 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 17W 26D 31L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 26W 19D 29L from 74 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 1.04 PPG, Osasuna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (13W 13D 11L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 11W 11D 15L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.96 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 17W 26D 31L in their last 74 games (1.04 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 26W 19D 29L in their last 74 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Osasuna away?
Getafe's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.41 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Getafe or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Getafe
2
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 6, Osasuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Osasuna?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 38%, Osasuna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Getafe) and 30% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 38% of games; Osasuna in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Getafe's recent matches and 38% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Getafe's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Osasuna tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 2-1 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.71 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Osasuna attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 42% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 25%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.04 PPG, Osasuna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.