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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.81 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Girona attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Girona 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights