Osasuna 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Getafe — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Getafe have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Getafe's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Getafe have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Osasuna.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Getafe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Getafe have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Getafe trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 55% versus Getafe 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 50% | Getafe 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.28 xG and Getafe 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.811 / defence 0.933 | Getafe attack 0.783 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.133. Data: 40 Osasuna games / 40 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 47% | Draw 29% | Getafe 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Getafe 4.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Getafe (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 80% | Getafe 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 47% | Draw 29% | Getafe 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Osasuna 1.28 / Getafe 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.811 / def 0.933 | Getafe attack 0.783 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Getafe xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 47% chance of winning, Getafe a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 2 | Getafe 5W.
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Getafe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.81x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.46
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.10
0.83
Getafe xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.83 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 12W 10D 18L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 18L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.15 PPG, Getafe on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Getafe's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.82 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe in 28%.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Getafe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Getafe have gone 16W 6D 18L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.65 PPG; Getafe away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Getafe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Getafe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 70%, Getafe 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Osasuna) and 35% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Getafe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Osasuna's recent matches and 25% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Osasuna's recent games and 35% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Getafe in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.28 xG and Getafe 0.83 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 47% | Draw 29% | Getafe 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 50%, Getafe 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.15 PPG, Getafe 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.