Levante 5-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Levante versus Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ciudad de Valencia — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ciudad de Valencia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Real Betis's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Levante, 2.10 for Real Betis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Real Betis have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Levante's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Real Betis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Betis have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Real Betis 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 45% | Real Betis 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.40 xG and Real Betis 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.036 / defence 0.977 | Real Betis attack 1.055 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.104. Data: 40 Levante games / 40 Real Betis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 31%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Real Betis 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 30% | Real Betis 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Levante 1.40 / Real Betis 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.036 / def 0.977 | Real Betis attack 1.055 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Levante (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Real Betis xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Real Betis kick off?
Levante vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Real Betis?
Levante 5 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Levante vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Real Betis part of?
Levante vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 43% chance of winning, Real Betis a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levante and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Betis?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 3W.
What form are Levante and Real Betis in?
Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Real Betis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levante's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Real Betis's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (1.05x) against Levante's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.77
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Levante xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Real Betis xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Levante and 1.14 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Levante have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 11W 10D 19L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis's form line: 17W 15D 8L from 40 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 6W 8D 5L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 65%.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 17W 15D 8L in their last 40 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Real Betis away?
Levante's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.37 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Levante or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Real Betis in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levante won 5-2 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
1
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Betis?
From 5 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Real Betis have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Levante 5-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 53%, Real Betis 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Levante) and 53% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Levante's games and 74% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Levante's recent games and 53% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Real Betis tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levante run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Real Betis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Real Betis 5-2 at Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.40 xG and Real Betis 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Betis outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Real Betis attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levante 43% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 31%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 45%, Real Betis 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.