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Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.73 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Espanyol attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Espanyol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 47%, Espanyol 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Espanyol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights