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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna and Elche share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna and Elche finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.59 xG and Elche 0.81 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 0.74 against Elche attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 55% | Draw 27% | Elche 18%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 20%, Elche 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Elche's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights