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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Osasuna 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 2-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.58 xG and Celta Vigo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Celta Vigo attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Celta Vigo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Celta Vigo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights