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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Osasuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.10 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 3, Celta Vigo 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Celta Vigo winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 57% and Celta Vigo 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Celta Vigo 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.58 xG and Celta Vigo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.065 / defence 0.823 | Celta Vigo attack 1.042 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.166. Data: 47 Osasuna games / 47 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 4.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Celta Vigo 80% BTTS from recent games.

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