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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Osasuna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.26 xG and Barcelona 1.61 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Barcelona attack 1.40 / defence 0.79, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 30% | Draw 24% | Barcelona 46%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Barcelona 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Barcelona's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights