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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico Madrid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Atletico Madrid 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.16 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.20 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Madrid landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 37%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights