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Osasuna and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 18, as Osasuna and Athletic Club drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.65 xG and Athletic Club 0.91 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Athletic Club attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 54% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 20%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 42%, Athletic Club 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Athletic Club 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights