🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Athletic Club defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.34 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Athletic Club attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Athletic Club 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights