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Poisson rates Osasuna at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Alaves — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.00 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Alaves trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Alaves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 41% | Alaves 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.43 xG and Alaves 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.087 / defence 1.122 | Alaves attack 0.768 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.075. Data: 54 Osasuna games / 54 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 28% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 4.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.

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