Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 0W 1D 5L this season (6 games, 0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levante register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Real Sociedad in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Real Sociedad and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Levante winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 53% and Real Sociedad 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 53% | Real Sociedad 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.99 xG and Real Sociedad 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.740 / defence 1.572 | Real Sociedad attack 0.992 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.082. Levante's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Levante games / 54 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 22% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 53%. Fair-value odds: Levante 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Real Sociedad 1.89. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levante 67% | Real Sociedad 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Levante 2 – 2 Real Sociedad • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Levante 50% / Draw 0% / Real Sociedad 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 24% / away 53% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.68 (50% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Levante (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Levante home split: 0.17 PPG from 6 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | CS 0 • Real Sociedad away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Real Sociedad lead by 0.60 PPG (1.10 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Levante): Poisson xG of 0.99 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Real Sociedad): Poisson projects 1.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~2.0 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.68 (50% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Levante 4/6, Real Sociedad 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 51% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Real Sociedad — Real Sociedad at 53% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 22% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Levante 0.99 / Real Sociedad 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.740 / def 1.572 | Real Sociedad attack 0.992 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Real Sociedad xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Levante vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Levante 1 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Levante vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Real Sociedad part of?
Levante vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 22% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levante and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Sociedad?
• Record (2 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Levante 2 – 2 Real Sociedad • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Levante 50% / Draw 0% / Real Sociedad 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 24% / away 53% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.68 (50% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Levante and Real Sociedad in?
• Levante (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Levante home split: 0.17 PPG from 6 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | CS 0 • Real Sociedad away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Real Sociedad lead by 0.60 PPG (1.10 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Levante): Poisson xG of 0.99 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Real Sociedad): Poisson projects 1.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~2.0 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.68 (50% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Levante 4/6, Real Sociedad 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 51% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Real Sociedad — Real Sociedad at 53% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Levante vs Real Sociedad?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture