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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 33, as Mallorca and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.68 xG and Valencia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 54% | Draw 24% | Valencia 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 52%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights