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Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Real Madrid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Real Madrid 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.18 xG and Real Madrid 1.58 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Real Madrid attack 1.28 / defence 0.76, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 28% | Draw 25% | Real Madrid 47%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 51%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights