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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 14, as Mallorca and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.60 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Osasuna attack 0.60 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.18 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights