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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mallorca) versus 0.80 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Osasuna and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Mallorca trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Osasuna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 53% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 43% | Osasuna 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.848 / defence 0.903 | Osasuna attack 0.602 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.102. Data: 51 Mallorca games / 51 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 60% | Osasuna 40%.

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