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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 23, as Mallorca and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.17 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights