Mallorca 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Mallorca) versus 0.90 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 45% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Osasuna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.772 / defence 1.015 | Osasuna attack 0.784 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.136. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Mallorca games / 60 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Mallorca 1.04 / Osasuna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.772 / def 1.015 | Osasuna attack 0.784 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 38% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Record (7 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.77) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.20
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.95
0.90
Osasuna xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.90 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 19D 24L from 60 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 23L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.17 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 11D 8L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Osasuna away?
Mallorca's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 45%, Osasuna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 48% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 34% of games; Osasuna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mallorca's recent matches and 52% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 48% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 23, as Mallorca and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.17 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.