Mallorca 0-0 Leganes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mallorca at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Leganes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Mallorca welcome Leganes to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Leganes — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Leganes have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mallorca register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Leganes in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mallorca, 0 for Leganes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Leganes in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Leganes 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 39% | Leganes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.56 xG and Leganes 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.943 / defence 0.996 | Leganes attack 0.790 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.260. Leganes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Mallorca games / 31 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 51% | Draw 25% | Leganes 24%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Leganes 4.17. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 80% | Leganes 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 51% | Draw 25% | Leganes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Mallorca 1.56 / Leganes 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.943 / def 0.996 | Leganes attack 0.790 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Leganes xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Leganes kick off?
Mallorca vs Leganes kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Leganes?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Leganes.
Where is Mallorca vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Leganes part of?
Mallorca vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 51% chance of winning, Leganes a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mallorca and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Leganes?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Leganes 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Leganes in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Leganes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.94x the league average against Leganes's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leganes's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.94
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.55
0.99
Leganes xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
5%
19.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.99 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Leganes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 7D 12L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Leganes's form line: 6W 10D 15L from 31 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leganes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Leganes have gone 1W 7D 7L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Leganes are on 0.94 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Leganes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Leganes in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Leganes have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Leganes away?
Mallorca's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.47 PPG; Leganes away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
0
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Leganes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Mallorca 0-0 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Leganes?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Leganes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 60%, Leganes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mallorca) and 33% (Leganes).
On the defensive side: Mallorca have failed to score in 27% of games; Leganes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Leganes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mallorca's games and 60% of Leganes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Leganes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Leganes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Leganes tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Leganes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 32, as Mallorca and Leganes drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.56 xG and Leganes 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Leganes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Leganes attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 51% | Draw 25% | Leganes 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 39%, Leganes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leganes's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.