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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.60 xG and Girona 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Girona attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Girona 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Girona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Girona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Girona 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights