Mallorca 2-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Girona travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.30 PPG, Girona 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mallorca, 2 for Girona and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Mallorca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 46% versus Girona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 33% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Girona 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.797 / defence 1.020 | Girona attack 0.934 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.164. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Mallorca games / 54 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 29% | Girona 37%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Girona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 50% | Girona 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 29% | Girona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 1.04 / Girona 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.797 / def 1.020 | Girona attack 0.934 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Girona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Girona xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Girona kick off?
Mallorca vs Girona kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Girona.
Where is Mallorca vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Girona part of?
Mallorca vs Girona is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 34% chance of winning, Girona a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Girona 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Girona in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.39
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
Girona xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.11 for Girona, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 15W 18D 21L from 54 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 13L across 54 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 9W 11D 7L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 12W 7D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.98 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Girona in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Girona have gone 31W 10D 13L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Girona away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Girona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Mallorca) and 48% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 56% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mallorca's recent games and 48% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Girona tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Girona in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Girona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Girona 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Girona 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 34% | Draw 29% | Girona 37%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Girona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.