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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca and Celta Vigo finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.22 xG and Celta Vigo 1.50 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Celta Vigo attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 31% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 44%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 41%, Celta Vigo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.23 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights