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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.52 xG and Celta Vigo 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Celta Vigo attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Celta Vigo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights