Almeria 3-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 35 as Almeria welcome Mallorca to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 1.10 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almeria, 1 for Mallorca and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Mallorca trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 71% versus Mallorca 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 62% | Mallorca 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.51 xG and Mallorca 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.933 / defence 1.212 | Mallorca attack 0.888 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.074. Data: 34 Almeria games / 72 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 3.45. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 70% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Almeria 1.51 / Mallorca 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.933 / def 1.212 | Mallorca attack 0.888 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Almeria (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mallorca xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Mallorca kick off?
Almeria vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Mallorca?
Almeria 3 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Almeria vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Mallorca part of?
Almeria vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 45% chance of winning, Mallorca a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almeria and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Almeria and Mallorca in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.92
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.67
1.16
Mallorca xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Almeria and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Almeria and 1.16 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 6D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.06 PPG, Mallorca on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almeria's home form reads 9W 2D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.97 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Mallorca away?
Almeria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.71 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Almeria or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Almeria won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almeria's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
2
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Mallorca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Mallorca 2-2 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 71%, Mallorca 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Almeria) and 35% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Almeria's games and 41% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Almeria's recent games and 35% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Mallorca tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almeria run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Mallorca 3-0 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.51 xG and Mallorca 1.16 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 62%, Mallorca 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.06 PPG, Mallorca 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.