Mallorca vs Barcelona – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Barcelona run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mallorca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Mallorca 1-5 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.98 xG and Barcelona 1.45 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Barcelona outscored their 1.45 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 0.77 against Barcelona attack 1.65 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 25% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 48%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 32%, Barcelona 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Barcelona's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Barcelona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights