Mallorca vs Barcelona – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Barcelona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.70
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.43
1.45
Barcelona xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.45 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.