Mallorca 1-5 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barcelona at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Barcelona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Barcelona at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Barcelona stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Barcelona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barcelona's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.90 PPG, Barcelona 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Barcelona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Mallorca's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Barcelona winning.
It is worth noting that Barcelona have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Barcelona trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Barcelona 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 32% | Barcelona 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.98 xG and Barcelona 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.786 / defence 0.773 | Barcelona attack 1.653 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.134. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.653 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mallorca's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Mallorca games / 53 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 25% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 48%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Barcelona 2.08. Barcelona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barcelona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Barcelona 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 25% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Mallorca 0.98 / Barcelona 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.786 / def 0.773 | Barcelona attack 1.653 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Barcelona xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Barcelona kick off?
Mallorca vs Barcelona kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Mallorca 1 - 5 Barcelona.
Where is Mallorca vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Barcelona part of?
Mallorca vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 25% chance of winning, Barcelona a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mallorca and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Barcelona?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Barcelona 5W.
What form are Mallorca and Barcelona in?
Mallorca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Barcelona (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Barcelona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.70
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.43
1.45
Barcelona xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.45 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 19D 19L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Barcelona sit at 2.25 PPG from 53 outings (37W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Barcelona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Barcelona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mallorca's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Barcelona have taken 2.11 points per game from 27 outings (17W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 2.30 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Barcelona in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Barcelona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 15W 19D 19L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 37W 8D 8L in their last 53 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Barcelona away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Barcelona in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Barcelona go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2024, when Barcelona won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Barcelona specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mallorca
1
Draws
9
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Barcelona?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 0, Barcelona have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Barcelona 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Barcelona 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Mallorca) and 74% (Barcelona).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Barcelona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Mallorca's games and 70% of Barcelona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Mallorca's recent games and 74% of Barcelona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Barcelona tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Barcelona run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona beat Mallorca 1-5 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.98 xG and Barcelona 1.45 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Barcelona outscored their 1.45 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 0.77 against Barcelona attack 1.65 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 25% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 48%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 32%, Barcelona 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Barcelona's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Barcelona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.