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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 5, as Mallorca and Atletico Madrid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.12 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 32% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 39%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Atletico Madrid 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights