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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Levante 1-4 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.22 xG and Real Madrid 1.99 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid outscored their 1.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.04 / defence 1.34 against Real Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 0.81, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 22% | Draw 23% | Real Madrid 54%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 80%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Levante managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights