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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levante and Espanyol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 19, as Levante and Espanyol drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.85 xG and Espanyol 1.68 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.74 / defence 1.45 against Espanyol attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 17/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 17% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 55%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 53%, Espanyol 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights