🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Espanyol at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Espanyol encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Levante welcome Espanyol to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 0W 2D 5L this season (7 games, 0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Espanyol stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Espanyol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Espanyol's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Levante's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Espanyol and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Levante in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Espanyol in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Espanyol 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 53% | Espanyol 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.85 xG and Espanyol 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.742 / defence 1.450 | Espanyol attack 1.031 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.122. Levante's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Levante games / 56 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 17% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 55%. Fair-value odds: Levante 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Espanyol (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levante 71% | Espanyol 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights