Levante vs Elche – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Levante versus Elche in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Elche (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Levante, 0.80 for Elche — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levante have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Elche in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Levante 2W, Elche 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Elche half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 52% and Elche 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Elche 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.96 xG and Elche 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.356 / defence 1.258 | Elche attack 0.974 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.277. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Levante games / 47 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 46% | Draw 24% | Elche 30%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Elche 3.33. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levante 60% | Elche 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 46% | Draw 24% | Elche 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Levante 1.96 / Elche 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.356 / def 1.258 | Elche attack 0.974 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Levante (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Elche xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Elche kick off?
Levante vs Elche is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Levante vs Elche part of?
Levante vs Elche is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 46% chance of winning, Elche a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Levante and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Elche?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 2W | Draws 1 | Elche 1W.
What form are Levante and Elche in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Elche (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Levante's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Elche's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.97x) against Levante's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.20
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Levante xG
Total xG
3.53
1.56
Elche xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Levante and 1.56 for Elche, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante's recent record stands at 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 19L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Levante against 1.07 for Elche. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levante have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Elche's away record stands at 2W 6D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Elche's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.28 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche in 70%.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Elche in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Elche have gone 11W 16D 19L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Elche away?
Levante's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.36 PPG; Elche away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levante won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
1
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Elche?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Elche have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Levante 3-2 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Elche?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for Levante, 82% for Elche — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 59% (Elche).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Elche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levante's games and 82% of Elche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 59% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Elche tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Elche in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.