Levante 0-2 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 40%, yet in-form Atletico Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levante vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Atletico Madrid at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Madrid are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levante register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Atletico Madrid in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Levante have won 1, Atletico Madrid 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 54% versus Atletico Madrid 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Atletico Madrid 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.93 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.448 / defence 1.241 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.176 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.253. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Levante games / 48 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Atletico Madrid 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Madrid (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 70% | Atletico Madrid 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Levante 1.93 / Atletico Madrid 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.448 / def 1.241 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.176 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Levante (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Atletico Madrid xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Levante vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Levante 0 - 2 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Levante vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Levante vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Levante and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 2 | Atletico Madrid 1W.
What form are Levante and Atletico Madrid in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (1.45) and Atletico Madrid's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.25
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Levante xG
Total xG
3.76
1.83
Atletico Madrid xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
6%
15.47
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Levante and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Levante and 1.83 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 13W 13D 22L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 29W 7D 12L across 48 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Madrid's away record stands at 10W 5D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.71 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 29W 7D 12L in their last 48 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Levante or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
From 5 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Levante 0-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 61%, Atletico Madrid 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Levante) and 52% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Levante's games and 52% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Levante's recent games and 52% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.93 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.83 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.45 / defence 1.24 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 50%, Atletico Madrid 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.