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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Leganes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Leganes 2-5 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.95 xG and Villarreal 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Leganes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.65 / defence 1.17 against Villarreal attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 25% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 48%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 35%, Villarreal 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights