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Dominant Leganes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Valladolid 3-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 2.30 xG and Valladolid 1.24 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Valladolid attack 0.86 / defence 1.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 61% | Draw 19% | Valladolid 20%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 40%, Valladolid 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Valladolid's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Leganes arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights