Leganes 0-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Municipal de Butarque to take on Leganes. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leganes have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estadio Municipal de Butarque — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leganes 1.20 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leganes have won 0, Rayo Vallecano 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leganes in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 43% versus Rayo Vallecano 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 33% | Rayo Vallecano 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 0.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.764 / defence 1.265 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.796 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.170. Leganes's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Leganes games / 59 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 26% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 44%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 20% | Rayo Vallecano 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 26% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Leganes 0.84 / Rayo Vallecano 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.764 / def 1.265 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.796 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rayo Vallecano xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?
Leganes 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 26% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Leganes and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (1 meetings): Leganes 0W | Draws 1 | Rayo Vallecano 0W.
What form are Leganes and Rayo Vallecano in?
Leganes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leganes's attack at 0.76x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.32
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.02
1.18
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Leganes and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Leganes and 1.18 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leganes's recent record stands at 5W 8D 8L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 6L across 21 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leganes on 1.10 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leganes have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 2W 5D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Leganes are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.19 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayo Vallecano in 71%.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 5W 8D 8L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Leganes's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.30 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Leganes or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leganes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
1
Draws
1
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Rayo Vallecano?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Leganes 0-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leganes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Leganes 20% BTTS, Rayo Vallecano 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Leganes and 20% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 50% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Leganes's recent matches and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Leganes's recent games and 20% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Leganes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Leganes 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.18 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leganes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 26% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 44%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 33%, Rayo Vallecano 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 1.10 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.