🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Leganes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Leganes 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.18 xG and Barcelona 2.61 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leganes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Barcelona landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Barcelona attack 1.64 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 15% | Draw 17% | Barcelona 68%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 40%, Barcelona 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Barcelona's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights