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Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.74 xG and Atletico Madrid 2.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.75 / defence 1.42 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.26 / defence 0.71, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 12% | Draw 19% | Atletico Madrid 69%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Leganes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 37%, Atletico Madrid 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Leganes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights